Tag: India

Stay On course

imagesLahore bus visit was replied by Kargil. Agra Summit was replied by the Parliament attack. PM Manmohan Singh peace initiatives were replied by Mumbai attacks and PM Narendra Modi’s impromptu visit to Pakistan on Christmas is replied by Pathankot attacks. India’s every peace initiative is replied by terror attacks from Pakistan.This has posed challenge for India to how to engage with Pakistan.  Disruption of talks and diplomatic relations have proved to be counter-productive. Extremist elements hijack the peace negotiations bringing improvement in relations to a grinding halt. On the other hand maintaining normal relations, inspite of terror attacks,  with Pakistan leads to very strong backlash from the domestic quarters.

Pakistan has multiple centres of power. The democratic elected civilian government in Pakistan do not enjoy absolute freedom. It’existence is dependent on military’s support. Pakistani military has removed civilian government when it didn’t toed the military line. Civilian government would has to take military into confidence before taking strategic decisions. Present PM of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif came to power with the promise of improving relations with India. Anti-India propaganda by political parties in Pakistan has also subsided with the growing realization that the real enemy of Pakistan is not India and better relations with India would be beneficial to Pakistan. In recent elections in PoK emphasis was on development rather than anti-India propaganda. Majority of people in Pakistan want better relations with India. Other power center in Pakistan is army. Army controls major resources of the country and to maintain its  supremacy it needs to preserve its relevancy. Improved Indo-Pak relations would lead to existential crisis for Pakistani Army. Therefore Pakistani Army has supported terrorist organisations against India and has not been supporter of better relations with India creating hurdles for Pakistani civilian government. Extremist organisations in Pakistan are the third power center. They are spreading anti-India radical propaganda to instigate people against India. Terrorist organisations would lose relevancy if Indo-Pak relations are normalized leading to erosion of public support. Hence, every peace initiative of India is replied by terror attacks to derail the process and nullify all the peace talks progress. Terrorists have been successful in their objectives. Each terror attack has led to

Terrorists have been successful in their objectives. Each terror attack has led to deterioration of relations leading to grinding halts in peace talks and loss of all previous progress. By stopping talks, making aggressive statements against Pakistan may assuage the domestic public but serves no real purpose. Lack of communication leads nowhere. The impasse still remains and hostility increases. The only way to resolve this situation is talks and strengthen the Pakistani civilian government and take Pakistani army into confidence.   The best reply to terrorists would be to deny them their objectives of terror attacks i.e. India and Pakistan should continue to talk. There is need to focus on low hanging fruits in

There is need to focus on low hanging fruits in India-Pakistan relations. By reaching consensus on smaller issues resolution on bigger issues could be achieved because of trust building on smaller issues. Need of the situation is to pluck the low hanging fruits first. Consensus could be reached on Sir Creek issue, TAPI and IPI gas pipe lines, trade relations, movement of people etc. Increased interdependencies would generate good will, people’s support and increased demand for peace and harmony leading to erosion of support to factions which do not want improved relations between India and Pakistan. The present need is to deindex peace talks from terror strikes and stay on course of peace initiatives to achieve incremental cumulative progress and deny terrorists what they want.

New Turning Point in India-Pakistan Relations

On 25th December 2015 Indian PM, Narendra Modi, made an impromptu visit to Pakistan on his return journey from the visit of Russia and Afghanistan. For the first time in over a decade an Indian Prime Minister visited Pakistan. Visit materialised when PM Modi called Pakistan’s PM Nawaz Sharif from Afghanistan for congratulating him on his birthday. Sharif invited Modi to Pakistan, an invitation pending since last year when Modi had invited all SAARC leaders in his  oath taking ceremony. Narendra Modi accepted the invitation and in next few hours PM Modi was in Pakistan.  An unprecedented move in diplomacy. PM Modi visited Nawaz Sharif’s ancestral home where Nawaz Sharif’s grand daughter was to be married next day. This impromptu visit to Pakistan is significant on many counts.

In past few years Indo-Pak relations have deteriorated ultimately leading to complete halt of talks and increased hostility. In this context PM visit to Pakistan has worked as an ice breaker. Personal family relations are used as important catalysts in diplomacy. Increased mutual trust has been shown by this visit. Casualization of visits and deindexing of talks from ground situation has been visualized.

Talks between India and Pakistan had come to grinding halt after Pakistan insisted on meeting separatists from Jammu and Kashmir before NSA level talks. Hence, India withdrew from the talks. PM Modi’s visit has worked as positive intervention and shows the positive intent of India for resolution of vexing issues hindering normalization of Indo-Pak relations. This move has generated a lot of goodwill in people of Pakistan and India.  This is evident from the support of all political parties in Pakistan. Political parties in Jammu and Kashmir have also welcomed PM Modi’s visit.

PM Modi used Nawaz Sharif’s birthday and his grand daughter’s wedding as an instrument for furthering diplomacy, improve relations and break the deadlock. Earlier also both PM’s have given peronal gifts for each other’s mother.  This is an innovation in art of diplomacy. Such moves have helps in creating better environment for talks and favourable public opinion.

When PM Modi visited Pakistan his security was managed by Pakistani establishment. It was for the first time that an Indian and Pakistani Prime Minister have flown in same helicopter. PM Modi went to Nawaz Sharif’s ancestal home in his car. Indian PM has shown great trust in Pakistani counterpart and shows India’s seriousness in advancing talks for better ties.

Impromptu casual visit to Pakistan removed the usual pressure and expectations associated with any India – Pakistan talks at any level. Also it could be step in the direction of deindexing peace talks from terror activites which is utilized by terror groups and Pakistani military establishment for derailing the talks. Unnecessary expectations and hyper publicity is detrimental to policy making. Disputes between India and Pakistan are complex on which consensus builiding is difficult. Constant media glare and frenzied opinions hampers free decision making. Governments come under a lot of unnecessary public  and media pressure and therefore fall short of taking tangible strong decisions which may be unpopular but beneficial in long term. By deindexing progress of peace talks and improving relations from acts of terror would devoid terrorist outfits, ISI and Pakistani military  of pressure tactics which are not favorable to normalization of relations. This would provide policy makers more leeway to negotiate and make peace talks progress incremental and cumulative.

So, Narendra Modi made personal relations important part of diplomacy. This impromptu visit, just as you drop to your neighbour’s home has made this visit very casual. It has two most important implications. First, it has generated a lot of goodwill in people of Pakistan and India.  This is evident from the support of all political parties in Pakistan. Political parties in Jammu and Kashmir have also welcomed PM Modi’s visit. Second, By making this visit casual in nature, it devoid visit of unnecessary expectations and publicity which is detrimental to policy making. Disputes between India and Pakistan are complex. Media publicity and frenzied opinions hampers free decision making. Governments come under a lot of unnecessary public pressure and media glare and therefore fall short of taking tangible strong decisions which may be unpopular but beneficial in long term. By deindexing progress of peace talks and improving relations from acts of terror would devoid terrorist outfits of pressure tactics and other forces in Pakistan which do not want normalisation of relations. This would give policy makers more leeway to negotiate and peace talks progress incremental and cumulative.

The innovative diplomatic move of Indian PM has shown the importance Indian government give to advancement of better relations with Pakistan and openness for utlizing uncoventional means for seeking solution. It has shown a new ray of hope for better relations between India and Pakistan.